Trend 2026: bullish scenarios for prices and volumes
UCI-SIRA survey: sales and prices expected to rise in 2026
The UCI-SIRA survey, widely followed by Spanish professionals, outlines an overall positive scenario for Catalonia in 2026. The agents surveyed anticipate:
- a gradual recovery in sales volumes after the adjustments of 2023–2024,
- a moderate but steady increase in prices per square metre,
- a Catalan market that is more dynamic than the Spanish average, driven by Barcelona and the coast.
The dominant trend would therefore not be a price explosion, but rather a upward normalization: less volatility, more stability, with a lasting premium for the most sought-after locations.
For a buyer, this means two things:
- expecting a significant drop in prices in Catalonia by 2026 seems unrealistic,
- the real issue becomes the choice of micro-location and the quality of the property rather than “perfect timing”.
Data from the specialist website Green Acres confirms this reading for properties in central Barcelona, where the average is around €544,000 for surfaces of around 117 m², i.e. a market already established at high value levels.
Coastal premium: Begur and Costa Brava with values of €5,000–8,000/m², over €9,000 with sea view
On the Catalan coast, the Costa Brava remains one of the most coveted markets in Europe for second homes and lifestyle change projects. Certain municipalities such as Begur, Tamariu, Llafranc or Calella de Palafrugell stand out for their clearly premium positioning.
The typical price ranges often observed in these most sought-after areas are:
- €5,000–8,000/m² for well-located apartments or houses, renovated or of recent high standard,
- over €9,000/m² for properties with panoramic sea views, generous terraces or direct access to the beach,
- total budgets that easily exceed €1M for a villa with pool in the most exclusive coves.
The averages recorded on Green Acres for the flagship towns of the Costa Brava illustrate this upmarket positioning, particularly real estate in Tamariu (over €1.09M on average for villas of around 250 m²) and also in Llafranc and Calella de Palafrugell, where required budgets regularly exceed one million euros.
This pressure on prices can be explained by several factors:
- very limited coastal land, protected by strict urban planning regulations,
- sustained international demand (France, Benelux, Germany, United Kingdom, Nordic countries),
- increased appeal among remote workers and mobile entrepreneurs looking for a Mediterranean lifestyle.
Looking ahead to 2026, the most realistic scenarios in this segment are:
- a continued rise in prices in exceptional locations,
- greater selectivity among buyers, who demand views, architectural quality and energy performance,
- a widening gap between iconic coves and neighbouring towns that are a little less well-known but more affordable.
The buyer profiles currently active in these markets are highly international: in the province of Girona, the Green Acres database shows that 46% of foreign enquiries come from France, far ahead of Germany (8%) and Belgium (7%), with median budgets around €239,000 for about 75 m², which also reflects the existence of a more affordable segment just back from the seafront.
Market mechanics
International demand and limited supply in hotspots
Understanding the dynamics of Catalan “hotspots” – those areas where prices hold up and continue to rise – is key to refining your buying strategy. Barcelona, Sitges, Begur, Cadaqués and some districts of the Costa Dorada combine a potent mix:
- strong international demand, relatively insensitive to local fluctuations,
- a limited supply of quality properties due to scarce land or renovation constraints,
- a housing stock often held for a long time, with low turnover.
In Barcelona, this tension is particularly visible in:
- central, well-connected neighbourhoods (Eixample, Gràcia, Born),
- highly sought-after coastal areas (Barceloneta, Diagonal Mar),
- “urban village” sectors with good transport links (Poblenou, Sarrià, Sant Gervasi).
In the greater Barcelona area, data from Green Acres also shows a significant share of foreign buyers, particularly French (17% of enquiries), but also American, Swiss and German, with median prices generally ranging between €3,000 and €4,000/m² depending on nationality. This depth of international demand partly explains the resilience of prices in the tightest neighbourhoods.
Practical consequences for a buyer:
- well-located properties sell quickly, sometimes at or above asking price,
- room for negotiation remains limited in the heart of the hotspots,
- preparing your financing package in advance becomes a real competitive advantage 🙂
In these areas, price dynamics are driven not only by primary residences, but also by:
- upmarket second homes,
- seasonal or medium-term rental investments,
- new residents attracted by the quality of life in Catalonia.
Towns such as Sitges, highly sought-after for their quality of life and easy access from Barcelona, are a perfect example of this pattern, with average budgets above one million euros for villas of around 220 m² in Sitges, while in Cadaqués, one of the most exclusive markets, enquiries focus on properties frequently exceeding €2M for smaller surfaces but with spectacular sea views (houses for sale in Cadaqués).
Catalan suburbs and mid-sized cities: more accessible options
Faced with the price levels in Barcelona and the most prestigious coastal towns, more and more buyers are turning to:
- well-connected suburbs of Barcelona,
- mid-sized Catalan cities undergoing renewal.
These areas often offer a better balance between:
- more affordable purchase prices,
- quality of life (green spaces, peace and quiet, proximity to nature),
- reasonable access to Barcelona or the coast by train or car.
Among the areas frequently considered by buyers:
- the Vallès (Sabadell, Terrassa, Sant Cugat) for family profiles,
- the Maresme (Mataró, Arenys, Vilassar) for a sea/price compromise,
- Girona and its conurbation, gateways to the Costa Brava,
- Lleida and certain inland towns for house-with-land projects on controlled budgets.
In these markets, the dynamics are different:
- prices remain more contained and sometimes negotiable,
- properties more often require renovation work,
- local buyers play a major role, which stabilises the market.
Data from the Green Acres database clearly illustrates these contrasts: in Sant Cugat or in several Maresme towns (Mataró, Arenys, Vilassar), average budgets range from around €385,000 to just over €1M for larger family homes, often with gardens (houses for sale in Mataró, houses for sale in Arenys, houses for sale in Vilassar), while in Girona itself, enquiries focus on large houses of over 400 m² for budgets exceeding one million euros (Girona real estate).
For a lifestyle change project, these areas represent an interesting option if:
- you are prepared to move away from the most prestigious seafront,
- you value space, a garden or a more rural environment,
- you have some flexibility in your commute or remote working arrangements.
In addition, the rise of remote work and hybrid lifestyles (city + countryside) could support prices in these municipalities by 2026, while still leaving attractive opportunities for early buyers.
In inland areas such as the province of Lleida, still little publicised but well represented in second-home searches, foreign buyers are currently mostly French (32% of enquiries), with median prices well below those on the coast. This makes it an interesting testing ground for those who want to prioritise space and budget over immediate proximity to the sea.
How to choose between Barcelona, the coast and mid-sized cities
In light of these market dynamics, the real challenge is to clarify your personal strategy rather than trying to find the “absolute best market”.
In practice, you can ask yourself a few simple questions:
- Is your main priority long-term asset value or day-to-day quality of life?
- Are you willing to accept longer commuting times to reduce the purchase budget?
- Do you want to rent out your property for part of the year (and if so, to what type of clientele)?
Some decision-making guidelines:
- Barcelona city centre: for a solid long-term asset with varied rental potential, but a high entry ticket.
- Premium Costa Brava (Begur, Llafranc, Tamariu…): for a sea-view “love at first sight” property, often as a second home, with scarcity supporting prices.
- More affordable coastline or mid-sized cities: to maximise space and comfort, betting on underlying trends (remote work, search for space, return to nature).
In all cases, the key is to:
- analyse the micro-area carefully (street, orientation, neighbours, services),
- anticipate the overall budget (price + works + purchase costs),
- get support to secure the transaction in a legal and tax environment that can be complex when you are buying from abroad.
